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What Trump Scrapping the Iran Nuclear Deal Means For Key Stakeholders

President Trump announced Tuesday to pull America out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as Iraq Nuclear deal, calling it a ‘’horrible, one-sided’’ deal.

American President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he will be pulling the country out of the ‘’horrible, one-sided’’ Iran Nuclear deal.

This action of Trump has resulted in the violation of an International agreement and a UN resolution under which the Iran Nuclear Deal was signed in the first place by his predecessor Barrack Obama in July 2015.

In addition to breaking an International agreement, America has also broken one of its long-cherished principles of standing alongside its European allies, three of whom in Germany, France, and the UK were negotiators in and participants of the deal.

The US, its allies, and Iran aren’t the only parties that will be affected by Trump’s decision. In addition, the likes of Russia and China – two of America’s biggest competitors on the world stage’’ will also be affected. Also affected will be the United Nations under whose tutelage the deal was signed.

Effects on Iran

Upon the coming into force of Iran Nuclear deal in January 2016, America decided to unfreeze $100 billion worth of Iranian assets which it had blocked in the period of sanctions. With the money back in Iranian coffers, the Middle Eastern country started to show signs of progress, so much so that inflation and unemployment came to pre-sanction levels.

Now that the deal is off, all the good trends will be reversed for the Iranian Republic. Its liberals which, under the command of President Rouhani, had gained prominence in the country, will now feel sidelined. This will only embolden the Iranian Supreme Leader and his Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to foment more trouble in the Middle East.

Effects on US Allies

As for America’s key allies in Germany, France, and the UK, Trump’s decision isn’t going to affect their governments directly. However, it would be a folly to say that they won’t be indirectly affected. For, in the wake of Iran Deal in 2015, many western financial institutions rushed to Iran for business.

However, now that Trump has given two separate deadlines of 90 and 120 days for foreign investors in Iran to wrap up their business, these organizations would have no choice but to head home. Otherwise, they risk becoming the target of American sanctions and losing access to the American market.

Therefore, with fewer profits for its companies, all Germany, France, and the UK will have America to blame for the absence of remittances that would have come to their countries had the Iran deal stood.

Effects on US’s World Standing

As historians might tell, it is not the first time that America had decided to ditch an International agreement despite being a founding member of the same deal. For, 100 years ago, America decided to ditch the idea of League of Nations, even though it was the American President Woodrow Wilson who had flouted its idea in the first place through his famous ‘’14 Points’’ Speech.

Still, America’s decision to ditch the Iran Nuclear deal is different to its backtracking over the League of Nations.

For, when America decided not to become a part of League of Nations – it wasn’t because its President had decided not to. Instead, it was the US Congress led by Hawks who killed the deal, which means that the decision not joining the League of Nations had implied public support.

Trump, however, cannot claim the luxury of even the ‘’implied’’ public support. For, in addition to every Democrat in the Congress, even some prominent Republicans like the ailing John McCain were in support of staying in the deal.

Effects on China and Russia

Russia and China were the only two non-US allies who were part of the Iran Nuclear deal. While both of them didn’t have much to gain from the deal – or lack of it – America’s decision to backtrack on its promise gives both of them enough opportunity to exploit it.

For, as far as China is concerned, it was visibly sidelined from the recent negotiations between North Korea and the United States. Now it can tell its Korean neighbors that since America couldn’t be trusted to keep its end of the bargain, Pyongyang should reach out to Washington only after passing through Beijing.

As for Russia, its state-owned oil company, Rosneft, had agreed on a deal worth $30 billion with its Iranian counterpart in 2017. However, now that the deal is off, any company investing in Iran would be subject to US sanctions. That means that Rosneft would have no choice but to back off, causing huge losses to the Russian Government.

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